How many Nigerians are there on Facebook? Not as many as you think. The latest Facebook demographic data, as of February 3, 2010, indicates that there are about a million Nigerians on Facebook (less Diaspora). Compare this with South Africa with 2.3 million, Eqypt with 2.5 million and Morocco with 1.3 million (all less Diaspora). Some might argue that one million is a big enough number. Yes it is. But not when it is analyzed side by side with population numbers. Take Morocco for instance. Morocco has a population of about 30 million people and yet has roughly the same number of Facebook users as Nigeria, a country with five times its population. This thus begs the question, why?
There are several reasons or may I say, hypothesis why this might be so. First is what I like to refer to as the “lag effect,” second is a relative lack of awareness or a low propensity to adopt the platform among Nigerians and third, is the relatively poor internet connectivity experience in Nigeria.
There are several theories to explain the “lag effect.” One reason is Facebook’s introduction among schools in for instance, Egypt and South Africa before those in Nigeria. Another is the relatively late rise in faster internet service providers in Nigeria compared to again, countries like Egypt and South Africa. As such, Facebook adoption rates among Nigerian users likely suffered a lag as both Egypt and South Africa had a much earlier head start. However despite this lag effect, at present, the Facebook growth rate among Nigerian users is growing at an exponential rate. For instance, in March last year, there were about 220,000 Nigerians on Facebook. Remember, the number as of this month is about one million. That is an outstanding growth rate!
Second, it seems that there is either a lack of awareness or a low propensity to adopt the platform among Nigerian users. Why is this so? Is Facebook not Nigerian enough for Nigerians? This signals an important opportunity in the social networking space for Nigerian technology entrepreneurs. Facebook might appear to be a monopoly in the space, but the statistics indicates that it is not; at least not at the time of this writing. There is room for an innovative platform that is Nigerian enough to capture the imaginations of Nigerian internet users. Perhaps we need a social network that incorporates our native languages as a means of communication or a social network that would do to Facebook, what Wazobia FM did to Nigerian radio.
Of course, the relatively poor internet connection experience in Nigeria, may be another factor. However, faster internet service by Nigerian internet service providers might be accelerating Nigeria’s Facebook adoption rates in recent times. In addition, in August 2009, Facebook launched Facebook Lite, a faster, simpler version of Facebook aimed for countries where internet bandwidth is limited. As such, given this new technology, we can expect that the Nigerian Facebook adoption rate should pick up exponentially due to a faster and better user experience.
Why do all these Nigerian Facebook statistics matter? It matters for companies initiating Facebook campaigns and for public figures amassing a following on Facebook. The truth is that Facebook has not gone main stream, yet. It has about 0.7% of the country’s population; a sizeable number given Nigeria’s size, but not quite enough needed to make the dent required for an upset in either business or politics. As such, for now, Nigerian businesses and public figures should (while maintaining their Facebook pages) remember to first and for most, take their movements to the streets. If not, they stand the risk of not reaching out to close to 99% of the Nigerian public.
Facebook should thus be viewed as a long term strategy; a long term investment in connecting and communicating with consumers and constituents. The Facebook adoption growth rate among Nigerian users is fantastic. As such, businesses and public figures that do not have a presence on Facebook now will hurt themselves down the road. Consider, Barack Obama and his over 7 million Facebook fans and Senator John McCain and his 511,000 Facebook fans. We know who won the election. However, Nigerian businesses and public figures looking for short term pay offs should remember to balance expectation with reality. It is nice to be on Facebook, but for now, it is even nicer to be talking directly to the Nigerian people, offline.
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